Cardiology Research, ISSN 1923-2829 print, 1923-2837 online, Open Access
Article copyright, the authors; Journal compilation copyright, Cardiol Res and Elmer Press Inc
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Original Article

Volume 000, Number 000, January 2026, pages 000-000


Association Between Insulin Resistance Marker Estimated Glucose Disposal Rate and Cardiovascular Risk in Obesity: Insights From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999 to 2018

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1. Participant flowchart. eGDR: estimated glucose disposal rate; NHANES: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; WHtR: waist-to-height ratio.
Figure 2.
Figure 2. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) by eGDR quartile (Q4 vs. Q1). eGDR: estimated glucose disposal rate; CI: confidence interval; Q: quartile; CAD: coronary artery disease.
Figure 3.
Figure 3. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for eGDR in predicting cardiovascular diseases (CVD). CAD: coronary artery disease; AUC: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
Figure 4.
Figure 4. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis of the association between eGDR and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. eGDR: estimated glucose disposal rate; CAD: coronary artery disease; CI: confidence interval.

Tables

Table 1. Baseline Characteristics of Study Individuals According to Quartiles of the eGDR Index
 
VariablesOverall (n = 20,521)eGDRP value
≤ 4 (n = 4,000)4 - 6 (n = 6,205)6 - 8 (n = 3,984)> 8 (n = 6,332)
BMI: body mass index; WC: waist circumference; HbA1c: glycated hemoglobin; TG: triglycerides; TC: total cholesterol; LDL-C: low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; HDL-C: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; CRP: C-reactive protein; Cr: creatinine; eGDR: estimated glucose disposal rate; WHtR: waist-to-height ratio; CVD: cardiovascular disease; NHANES: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.
Age (year)54 (39, 67)60 (49, 68)62 (49, 72)49 (34, 64)44 (32, 60)< 0.001
Female, n (%)11,979 (58.4%)1,936 (48.4%)3,662 (59.0%)2,095 (52.6%)4,286 (67.7%)< 0.001
Race, n (%)< 0.001
  Mexican American4,352 (21.2%)576 (14.4%)1,060 (17.1%)847 (21.3%)1,869 (29.5%)
  Non-Hispanic Black4,265 (20.8%)1,217 (30.4%)1,380 (22.2%)762 (19.1%)906 (14.3%)
  Non-Hispanic White8,846 (43.1%)1,758 (44.0%)2,889 (46.6%)1,807 (45.4%)2,392 (37.8%)
  Hispanic1,874 (9.1%)284 (7.1%)534 (8.6%)343 (8.6%)713 (11.3%)
  Other1,184 (5.8%)165 (4.1%)342 (5.5%)225 (5.6%)452 (7.1%)
BMI (kg/m2)33.0 (30.0, 37.0)38.1 (34.2, 42.8)31.8 (29.4, 35.1)35.1 (31.7, 38.7)31.1 (29.0, 33.4)< 0.001
WC (cm)110 (103, 119)124 (118, 132)108 (103, 113)117 (112, 122)104 (100, 108)< 0.001
HbA1c (%)5.70 (5.30, 6.10)6.40 (5.80, 7.70)5.70 (5.40, 6.10)5.60 (5.40, 6.00)5.40 (5.20, 5.70)< 0.001
Fasting glucose (mg/dL)104 (96, 119)122 (105, 165)106 (98, 119)104 (96, 115)98 (91, 105)< 0.001
TG (mmol/L)1.63 (1.12, 2.41)1.74 (1.21, 2.59)1.64 (1.13, 2.39)1.65 (1.14, 2.45)1.55 (1.06, 2.29)< 0.001
TC (mg/dL)195 (169, 224)185 (158, 216)195 (169, 224)196 (170, 223)201 (175, 230)< 0.001
LDL-C (mmol/L)2.97 (2.38, 3.60)2.74 (2.15, 3.39)2.95 (2.33, 3.57)3.05 (2.46, 3.65)3.10 (2.56, 3.70)< 0.001
HDL-C (mmol/L)1.22 (1.01, 1.47)1.14 (0.96, 1.37)1.24 (1.03, 1.50)1.16 (0.98, 1.40)1.27 (1.06, 1.53)< 0.001
CRP (mmol/L)0.60 (0.25, 1.81)0.93 (0.36, 2.96)0.56 (0.23, 1.66)0.64 (0.27, 2.07)0.50 (0.21, 1.35)< 0.001
Serum Cr (mmol/L)72 (62, 88)80 (66, 97)77 (63, 91)72 (62, 88)67 (55, 80)< 0.001
eGDR6.03 (4.40, 8.31)3.03 (2.16, 3.58)4.95 (4.54, 5.40)7.27 (6.65, 7.68)8.77 (8.40, 9.19)< 0.001
WHtR0.66 (0.63, 0.71)0.74 (0.69, 0.79)0.65 (0.63, 0.69)0.69 (0.65, 0.73)0.63 (0.61, 0.66)< 0.001
Hypertension, n (%)9,782 (47.7%)3,886 (97.2%)5,453 (87.9%)443 (11.1%)0 (0.0%)< 0.001
CVD, n (%)2,994 (14.6%)1,048 (26.2%)1,256 (20.2%)352 (8.8%)338 (5.3%)< 0.001
Heart failure, n (%)942 (4.6%)407 (10.2%)366 (5.9%)89 (2.2%)80 (1.3%)< 0.001
Coronary artery disease, n (%)1,125 (5.5%)412 (10.4%)480 (7.8%)130 (3.3%)103 (1.6%)< 0.001
Angina (%)839 (4.1%)308 (7.8%)346 (5.6%)89 (2.2%)96 (1.5%)< 0.001
Myocardial infarction, n (%)1,177 (5.7%)439 (11.0%)457 (7.4%)147 (3.7%)134 (2.1%)< 0.001
Stroke, n (%)962 (4.7%)310 (7.8%)452 (7.3%)98 (2.5%)102 (1.6%)< 0.001
Diabetes status, n (%)< 0.001
  Normal7,609 (37.1%)485 (12.1%)1,875 (30.2%)1,569 (39.4%)3,680 (58.1%)
  Prediabetes7,640 (37.2%)1,132 (28.3%)2,619 (42.2%)1,607 (40.3%)2,282 (36.0%)
  Diabetes5,272 (25.7%)2,383 (59.6%)1,711 (27.6%)808 (20.3%)370 (5.8%)
Smoking status, n (%)< 0.001
  Current3,533 (17.2%)675 (16.9%)1,002 (16.2%)751 (18.9%)1,105 (17.5%)
  Former5,883 (28.7%)1,423 (35.6%)2,024 (32.6%)1,062 (26.7%)1,374 (21.7%)
  Never11,088 (54.1%)1,901 (47.5%)3,174 (51.2%)2,166 (54.4%)3,847 (60.8%)
Alcohol consumption, n (%)< 0.001
  Heavy759 (3.8%)132 (3.5%)196 (3.3%)182 (4.7%)249 (4.0%)
  Moderate5,130 (25.8%)1,074 (28.2%)1,482 (24.8%)1,165 (30.0%)1,409 (22.7%)
  Mild10,869 (54.7%)2,043 (53.6%)3,328 (55.6%)1,972 (50.9%)3,526 (56.9%)
  Never3,121 (15.7%)566 (14.8%)981 (16.4%)559 (14.4%)1,015 (16.4%)
NHANES cycle, n (%)< 0.001
  1999 - 20001,603 (7.8%)235 (5.9%)485 (7.8%)295 (7.4%)588 (9.3%)
  2001 - 20021,717 (8.4%)253 (6.3%)490 (7.9%)338 (8.5%)636 (10.0%)
  2003 - 20041,748 (8.5%)284 (7.1%)569 (9.2%)327 (8.2%)568 (9.0%)
  2005 - 20061,780 (8.7%)307 (7.7%)496 (8.0%)337 (8.5%)640 (10.1%)
  2007 - 20082,266 (11.0%)455 (11.4%)701 (11.3%)427 (10.7%)683 (10.8%)
  2009 - 20102,414 (11.8%)505 (12.6%)745 (12.0%)493 (12.4%)671 (10.6%)
  2011 - 20121,974 (9.6%)429 (10.7%)603 (9.7%)395 (9.9%)547 (8.6%)
  2013 - 20142,250 (11.0%)479 (12.0%)681 (11.0%)424 (10.6%)666 (10.5%)
  2015 - 20162,388 (11.6%)508 (12.7%)720 (11.6%)469 (11.8%)691 (10.9%)
  2017 - 20182,381 (11.6%)545 (13.6%)715 (11.5%)479 (12.0%)642 (10.1%)

 

Table 2. Univariate and Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis for CVD Risk Factors
 
VariablesUnivariableMultivariable
OR95% CIP valueOR95% CIP value
CVD: cardiovascular disease; TG: triglycerides; TC: total cholesterol; LDL-C: low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; HDL-C: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; CRP: C-reactive protein; Cr: creatinine; eGDR: estimated glucose disposal rate; WHtR: waist-to-height ratio; CVD: cardiovascular disease; NHANES: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.
eGDR
  Q1 (> 8)----
  Q2 (6 - 8)1.721.47, 2.01< 0.0011.351.02, 1.780.035
  Q3 (4 - 6)4.503.97, 5.10< 0.0012.111.67, 2.66< 0.001
  Q4 (≤ 4)6.305.53, 7.17< 0.0012.481.90, 3.22< 0.001
Male1.661.54, 1.80< 0.0011.100.89, 1.350.379
Age1.061.06, 1.07< 0.0011.051.05, 1.06< 0.001
Race
  Other----
  Mexican American0.760.62, 0.940.0110.640.42, 0.980.039
  Non-Hispanic Black1.301.07, 1.590.0101.010.67, 1.530.968
  Non-Hispanic White1.801.50, 2.18< 0.0011.020.69, 1.500.936
  Hispanic0.990.79, 1.250.9600.940.60, 1.480.797
Serum Cr1.011.01, 1.02< 0.0011.011.01, 1.01< 0.001
TG1.010.99, 1.030.2800.910.56, 1.480.704
Fasting glucose1.011.01, 1.01< 0.0011.001.00, 1.000.709
TC0.990.99, 0.99< 0.0011.010.98, 1.030.711
LDL-C0.610.57, 0.66< 0.0010.630.22, 1.780.381
HDL-C0.700.63, 0.79< 0.0010.580.20, 1.660.307
CRP1.011.00, 1.020.0031.011.00, 1.020.229
Diabetes status
  Normal----
  Prediabetes1.861.67, 2.07< 0.0011.090.87, 1.370.449
  Diabetes4.413.97, 4.89< 0.0011.571.19, 2.060.001
Smoking status, n (%)
  Current----
  Former2.332.13, 2.54< 0.0011.401.17, 1.67< 0.001
  Never1.461.31, 1.63< 0.0012.361.89, 2.94< 0.001
Alcohol consumption, n (%)
  Never----
  Mild1.090.98, 1.230.1241.130.90, 1.420.302
  Moderate1.060.93, 1.200.3910.990.74, 1.320.935
  Heavy0.660.51, 0.860.0020.820.51, 1.320.409

 

Table 3. Association between eGDR Quartiles and CVD Risk in Different Multivariate Models
 
VariablesModel 1Model 2Model 3
OR95% CIP valueOR95% CIP valueOR95% CIP value
CVD: cardiovascular disease; TG: triglycerides; TC: total cholesterol; LDL-C: low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; HDL-C: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; CRP: C-reactive protein; Cr: creatinine; Q: quartile; eGDR: estimated glucose disposal rate; OR: odds ratio; CI: confidence interval.
eGDR
  Q1 (> 8)------
  Q2 (6 - 8)1.411.20, 1.66< 0.0011.401.19, 1.65< 0.0011.621.25, 2.10< 0.001
  Q3 (4 - 6)3.372.95, 3.84< 0.0012.592.27, 2.95< 0.0013.392.73, 4.22< 0.001
  Q4 (≤ 4)3.583.10, 4.14< 0.0014.103.57, 4.70< 0.0013.893.06, 4.94< 0.001
Male1.391.28, 1.52< 0.001
Age1.061.06, 1.06< 0.001
Race
  Other--
  Mexican American0.750.60, 0.940.012
  Non-Hispanic Black1.000.81, 1.240.994
  Non-Hispanic White1.120.91, 1.360.291
  Hispanic0.860.67, 1.100.219
Serum Cr1.011.01, 1.02< 0.001
Fasting glucose1.001.00, 1.000.917
TG0.950.62, 1.450.806
TC1.000.98, 1.030.694
LDL-C0.600.24, 1.490.269
HDL-C0.830.33, 2.100.692
CRP1.000.99, 1.010.463
Diabetes status
  Normal--
  Prediabetes1.461.31, 1.64< 0.001
  Diabetes2.552.27, 2.87< 0.001
Smoking status, n (%)
  Current--
  Former2.061.87, 2.27< 0.001
  Never1.541.37, 1.74< 0.001
Alcohol consumption, n (%)
  Never--
  Mild0.900.80, 1.020.113
  Moderate0.820.71, 0.940.005
  Heavy0.580.44, 0.76< 0.001

 

Table 4. Subgroup Analysis of the Association Between eGDR Quartiles (Q4) and CVD Risk
 
VariablesAgeSexDiabetes status
≤ 60> 60MaleFemaleNormalPrediabetesDiabetes
Q: quartile; eGDR: estimated glucose disposal rate.
eGDR Q1-------
eGDR Q21.79 (1.35 - 2.36)1.40 (1.15 - 1.71)1.16 (0.93 - 1.46)2.19 (1.77 - 2.72)1.34 (1.02 - 1.77)1.49 (1.16 - 1.92)1.04 (0.74 - 1.45)
P < 0.001P < 0.001P = 0.182P < 0.001P = 0.036P = 0.002P = 0.833
eGDR Q35.73 (4.56 - 7.20)2.17 (1.86 - 2.55)3.60 (2.99 - 4.33)5.09 (4.28 - 6.05)4.40 (3.57 - 5.41)3.92 (3.21 - 4.80)1.91 (1.42 - 2.56)
P < 0.001P < 0.001P < 0.001P < 0.001P < 0.001P < 0.001P < 0.001
eGDR Q48.84 (7.03 - 11.12)3.23 (2.73 - 3.81)5.04 (4.19 - 6.07)6.53 (5.42 - 7.86)3.26 (2.37 - 4.50)4.51 (3.60 - 5.66)2.35 (1.76 - 3.15)
P < 0.001P < 0.001P < 0.001P < 0.001P < 0.001P < 0.001P < 0.001