Cardiol Res

Cardiology Research, ISSN 1923-2829 print, 1923-2837 online, Open Access

Article copyright, the authors; Journal compilation copyright, Cardiol Res and Elmer Press Inc

Journal website https://cr.elmerpub.com

Original Article

Volume 17, Number 5, October 2026, pages 459-465

Watching the Game, Skipping the Hospital: World Cup Matches and Cardiovascular Hospitalizations

Figure

↓ Figure 1. Incidence rate ratios (95% CI) for AMI and heart failure on Brazil match days versus non-match days, primary and sensitivity analyses. Blue markers show the primary analysis (all three tournaments); green markers show the sensitivity analysis excluding the 2014 host-nation tournament. AMI: acute myocardial infarction; CI: confidence interval.

Tables

↓ **Table 1.** Negative Binomial Regression Results: IRRs for Cardiovascular Hospitalizations on Brazil World Cup Match Days Versus Non-Match Days, 2014–2022
Outcome	Model	Exposure	IRR	95% CI	P-value
Model controls for day of week, calendar month, and year fixed effects. Reference category for all models is non-match days within the same ± 30-day tournament window. AMI: acute myocardial infarction (ICD-10 I21); HF: heart failure (I50); IRR: incidence rate ratio.
AMI	M1: any match day	Brazil match	0.930	0.898–0.962	< 0.001
Heart failure	M1: any match day	Brazil match	0.889	0.855–0.925	< 0.001

↓ **Table 2.** Sensitivity of the Brazil Match-Day Association to Alternative Inference Methods
Outcome	Method	IRR	95% CI	P-value
^aClustered standard errors are exploratory given only three tournament clusters. ^bPermutation test shuffles match-day status within tournament, preserving the observed number of match days per tournament; P-value reflects the proportion of 2,000 permuted coefficients at least as extreme as the observed coefficient (add-one correction). CI: confidence interval; IRR: incidence rate ratio; SE: standard error.
AMI	Model-based SE (primary)	0.930	0.898–0.962	< 0.001
AMI	HC3 robust SE	0.930	0.894–0.967	< 0.001
AMI	Newey-West (lag 3)	0.930	0.896–0.965	< 0.001
AMI	Clustered by tournament^a	0.930	0.893–0.968	< 0.001
AMI	Permutation (2,000 permutations)^b	0.930	-	< 0.001
Heart failure	Model-based SE (primary)	0.889	0.855–0.925	< 0.001
Heart failure	HC3 robust SE	0.889	0.858–0.922	< 0.001
Heart failure	Newey-West (lag 3)	0.889	0.861–0.919	< 0.001
Heart failure	Clustered by tournament^a	0.889	0.853–0.928	< 0.001
Heart failure	Permutation (2,000 permutations)^b	0.889	-	< 0.001